Is it possible that the polls are understating support for removal or the enthusiasm gap between Newsom’s detractors and his supporters? Sure. But California is still a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1. Over 46% of registered voters in California are Democrats. More than half of independent voters lean toward the Democratic Party as well.

The fact is that Newsom’s removal, which once seemed possible and does still have an outside shot of happening, was always less likely than him surviving the recall. That is just the political reality in California. But this can’t be the white whale for California conservatives. If the recall does indeed fail, conservatives shouldn’t throw up their hands and begin ignoring California once again…

The fact is that even if the recall succeeds and someone such as Republican radio host Larry Elder becomes California’s next governor, Democrats will still have a veto-proof majority in the California Legislature. A Democrat would almost certainly take back the governor’s mansion in 2022. Even if the recall succeeds, California won’t be changed overnight. The Golden State is going to require a long-term commitment.