Manchin has put Biden's presidency in mortal danger

The greatest danger posed by Manchin’s pause gambit is that it will wreck the carefully negotiated strategy Democratic leaders have crafted. Facing moderate and progressive factions that don’t trust each other, they set out to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill (favored by the center) and Biden’s human capital bill (favored by the left) in tandem. Manchin reportedly advised the moderate House Democrats who, months into the schedule, decided to wreck the strategy and insist on infrastructure first.

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The compromise negotiated in the House requires an expedited schedule, with an infrastructure vote by the end of the month. The sequence is still workable, as long as both factions have an understanding of what they’ll include in the social spending bill. Without that understanding in place, progressives have every incentive to vote down the infrastructure bill, which will in turn contribute to the impression of dysfunction and chaos. (Passing it without any commitments from the moderates would strip them of any leverage and open the door for Manchin to walk away the next time inflation, a foreign-policy setback, humidity, or any other development gives him a pretext.)

The sequence of Manchin’s negotiations is especially likely to provoke distrust. He helped create a demand for a fast infrastructure vote, which necessitates the scramble to speed up the second bill. Indeed, the most reasonable demand House moderates have is not to be forced to vote for a larger bill than Manchin ultimately agrees to. The whole process hinges on Manchin figuring out what level of taxes and spending he can accept, and allowing House Democrats to negotiate on that basis. His insistence on waiting freezes everything in place.

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