California is so solidly Democratic that it would take a near-total Democratic turnout collapse for Newsom to be recalled. But Latinos across the country shifted incrementally toward Donald Trump in 2020, with headline-grabbing defections from the Democratic Party in Florida and Texas in particular. Now, polls suggest this once reliable and fast-growing voting bloc for Democrats is softening on Newsom, even in this heavily Democratic state. It’s a reminder that Latino support for Democrats is not a given.

If the trend holds, with even a small segment of the Latino electorate embracing the GOP, it may spell disaster for the Democratic Party — and not just in California this year. The party in power typically suffers losses in midterm elections, and Democrats will need a robust Latino turnout in 2022 to protect its narrow majorities in Congress.

“The outcome of this recall is going to be a barometer for how well prepared Democrats are for next year’s midterms because if Democrats can’t find a way to mobilize Latino voters to save a [Democratic] governor, how on earth are we going to ask for them to save a Democratic Congress and, therefore, the Biden administration’s agenda?” said Christian Arana, vice president of policy at the Latino Community Foundation, a statewide philanthropic organization that promotes Latino voter participation.