The two developments illustrate the Taliban’s conundrum as they try to govern a nation that has experienced 20 years of Western-led modernization. The Taliban need the world to provide financial assistance, which hinges on recognition of the new emirate’s leaders. Hence the feverish effort to convince the world that the Taliban are pragmatic, despite being a radical Islamist entity.
But the Taliban can’t be both at once. In other words, the Afghan Taliban have to change but can’t—not without causing an internal rupture. I studied the group for my doctoral dissertation on ideological and behavioral transformation among radical Islamist movements. Such changes, I found, require a long and tortuous process, and even then, transformation remains elusive.
The risk of fracture is especially acute when a movement has to change behavior abruptly for geopolitical reasons. Although Taliban leaders realize that they have to do business with the U.S., the group considers America the enemy. Thus, the meeting with the CIA chief has fueled suspicions among the Taliban rank and file, who are being asked to go against years or decades of ideological conditioning.
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