Analysts and operatives are looking at the recall as a test case for the midterm elections. Newsom knows he can’t yet declare victory over the pandemic. Like the Democrats in next year’s midterm elections, he’s going to have to get voters to give him more time in power even though much of what he said he’d fix won’t be fixed by the time people vote. Will he be able to convince voters that their lives are a bit better—and that kind of better is good enough for now? Will he be able to convince them that Trump and Trumpism would be worse? Will he be able to convince Democrats to vote now that the president they loved to loathe is no longer on the ballot?…

Even in the midst of the pandemic, Newsom probably wouldn’t be in trouble against this semi-hapless slate of challengers, if not for his own bumbling. In addition to the French Laundry episode, he has a habit of boasting about good news before later acknowledging that it was not quite as good as he’d said. His supporters urge understanding: “There’s no off-the-shelf manual of ‘How to Govern in a Pandemic,’” Scott Wiener, a state senator who represents San Francisco, has said. But others believe that Newsom’s pileup of problems is exactly the kind of no-confidence situation the recall law was meant to address. Jordan Cunningham, a moderate Republican assembly member from about halfway between San Francisco and Los Angeles, told me that he’s fed up with what he feels was Newsom’s arbitrary, political approach to closing schools and businesses, insisting on blanket policies and not listening to local leaders. Though Cunningham doesn’t usually discuss how he’ll vote, in this case he was proud to say he supports the recall and is endorsing Faulconer. He offered a baseball metaphor to explain his openness to the potential chaos that the recall could set off, especially because Faulconer doesn’t look likely to win. “If your pitcher’s getting shellacked, you’re better off putting anybody else in,” he said. “If they’re giving up homer after homer and they keep throwing meaty pitches over the plate, if you want to win that game, change your pitcher.”