The House progressives claim to have more people willing to hold out on the bipartisan infrastructure bill than nine. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the progressives hold more leverage.

For one thing, the progressives have been squirrely about exactly how many people hold that position. The leaders of the Congressional Progressive Caucus said in their own letter, sent before the moderate threat was issued, that they surveyed their 96 members and found a “majority of our respondents” would not vote for the bipartisan bill “until the Senate adopted a robust reconciliation package.” But they didn’t tell us how many of the 96 responded to the survey, so we can’t assume the number is more than 48. Moreover, unlike the nine moderates, all those taking the progressive hard-line position haven’t put their names to paper. (I’m not a master head-counter, but so far I’ve counted 11 House progressives who have taken that position publicly.)

Furthermore, the votes needed for the moderates to block the budget resolution, and for the progressives to block the bipartisan infrastructure bill, are not the same. We know the budget resolution vote will fall along party lines. Currently there are 220 Democrats in the House, and 217 constitutes a majority, so a loss of four Democrats blocks partisan legislation.