Still, it’s not certain how deep Trump’s support would be in a Republican primary. “Even the base that loves Trump is not so sure he should run,” said Bob Vander Plaats, an influential activist in the state who backed Ted Cruz in 2016. The prominent social conservative leader noted there are electability concerns around the former president who has lost the popular vote twice. “I don’t know that he’s going to be able to win,” said Vander Plaats. “He’ll be able to win the primary but will he win the general? And the calculation of so many of the base is that we love what President Trump has done … but we need to win.”

Another operative said “people want to see who else is running,” and that while voters “may go back to Trump, it’s definitely anyone’s game” at this point. Another operative acknowledged that Trump would start off as “the dominant favorite” in Iowa if he got in the race but that was by no means settled. “People are showing up and listening to other potential candidates and they are going to keep coming out. There is a lot of fertile ground for a Republican not named Trump.”

One initial way to view the primary electorate was offered by John Brabender, a veteran national Republican strategist: “The group of people I believe wholeheartedly in the Trump agenda and thought his style and manner was exactly what we needed to have happen, versus the group that was wholeheartedly in support with his agenda but uncomfortable with his style and manner.” He compared this to the difference between “people who simply purchase a product and those who are loyal to a brand.”