Prospects for this resistance, led by former Vice President and National Directorate of Security chief Amrullah Saleh, make it a decided longshot. Saleh has a formidable task ahead of him and his prospects are bleak. The Taliban dominates the security situation and has been infused with an arsenal of weapons as spoils from the now-defunct Afghan National Defense and Security Forces, which were supplied by the United States and NATO allies. Additionally, the Taliban holds strategic terrain and Panjshir is surrounded. Morale in the rank and file of the Taliban’s army is also buoyed by its stunning victory that saw 32 of 34 provinces and their capitals collapse in the span of just 11 days.

Only Panjshir remains, while the status of neighboring Parwan province is unclear. Saleh’s forces have reportedly attempted to expand their control beyond Panjshir in the neighboring province of Parwan.

The Taliban, while ascendent, has its own challenges. It is attempting to secure Kabul, a city of 4.5 million people flooded with refugees. The Taliban must commit significant resources to do so. There are reports of fighting in western Kabul, and that will tie down Taliban military assets. The Taliban must decide if wants to divert forces from Kabul and elsewhere to put down the emerging threat in Panjshir. The Taliban does not want a repeat of the 1990s, when it battled the Northern Alliance, which halted the Taliban’s goal of dominance in all of Afghanistan’s provinces.