Why America will struggle to confront Al Qaeda in Afghanistan

The displacement of America and Afghan democracy will be seen by the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Salafi-Jihadists everywhere as a sign of Allah’s beneficence toward the faithful. The Taliban will relish in this perception, advancing themselves as the global leader for true Islamic governance. The group’s impulse for hostility toward the West, certainly to allowing al Qaeda’s external hostility, will be fueled by the sense their restored Emirate is just the first of many victories to come. The group’s spiritual leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, has previously made clear the defeat of the Afghan government and of international forces is only the first necessary step. What follows is the construction of an Islamic emirate that will seek to expand the reach and control of Islamism across the world.

Then there’s the tactical counterterrorism challenge. Beyond a few CIA officers operating in the shadows, the U.S. no longer has a presence in Afghanistan. That means it has far fewer means to recruit intelligence agents and monitor the Taliban, al Qaeda, and other enemies. Yes, the U.S. can still monitor terrorist phone calls, chat rooms, and emails where and when they decide to use those platforms. But absent presence, knowing who to target for intelligence gathering and how to do so is a lot more complicated. Al Qaeda has learned from 20 years of war how to mitigate its detection to intelligence gathering. The Taliban will give al Qaeda space to plan, operate, and initiate new attacks against the West.