The notion that the Afghan conflict looked the same in 2021 as it did in 2016 is downright hallucinatory. The U.S. and NATO formally ended combat operations in Afghanistan at the end of 2014. In the years that followed, the American mission had been limited to support operations for local forces, many of which took place from behind the high walls of U.S.-run facilities. To the extent that America’s modest, affordable and low-risk footprint in Afghanistan maintained the peace, it was largely as a deterrent force that dissuaded the Taliban from embarking on the broad offensive now underway.

The last American combat-related death in Afghanistan occurred on Feb. 8, 2020. Every U.S. soldier’s death in service to the country is tragic, and their sacrifices must be honored. But to call that an unacceptable level of risk calls into question U.S. deployments to places like Kosovo, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, where U.S. soldiers also lost their lives last year.

And yet, the happy fallacy Biden may come to regret putting his faith in most is the notion that the U.S. was desperate to dissolve our commitments to the Afghan people and would celebrate that achievement. Where are the sighs of relief from a grateful public? Where are the celebrations? If Brookings Institution scholars Madiha Afzal and Israa Saber are right, the Biden administration has misread the national mood.