When faced with an imminent US pullout, many Afghans’ more traditional ethnic, tribal and even family ties overshadowed any loyalty they might feel to the nascent Afghan army, enabling provincial Taliban commanders to negotiate the virtually peaceful surrender of many troops.

“The Taliban political franchise was able to peel off bits of the government because the government did not tend to its constituents enough — the tribes, clans, militias and ethnicities. That is the fundamental issue,” Martin said. “The army commanders just surrendered in return for amnesty, which the Taliban granted them and let them go home.”

Former US president Donald Trump’s February 2020 deal with the Taliban, combined with Biden’s determination to adhere to it without a well-planned military transition plan, emboldened the Taliban and hit the morale of the Afghan armed forces just as the country was beginning its fighting season. This generally runs from April to October, before winter leaves much of the country snowbound.

Ali Yawar Adili, country director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, said Afghan troops were deeply rattled by the abrupt manner in which US logistical and air support was withdrawn. Many Afghans — including Ghani — never expected that.