Given the lack of an obvious heir apparent, a succession fight would likely be brutal and unpredictable. Heads of security agencies might make a grab for the brass ring. In the Soviet Union long-time secret police chief Lavrentiy Beria failed when he sought the top role in 1953; KGB head Yuri Andropov won the leadership of the communist party in 1982 but died shortly thereafter. The military could bid for power or play kingmaker while extracting promises to protect the institution’s role and privileges.

A collective leadership could emerge, at least at the start. However, North Korean politics always has featured a dominant leader. So has the South, though since 1987 it has relied on elections to select the men and women who rule. The very nature of the North Korean system—totalitarian with no safety net for those who fail—puts a premium on ending up atop the pack. As Donald Trump might say, second place is for losers.

There’s very little that the U.S. could do to influence the outcome. However, the Biden administration should watch carefully if instability seems to threaten. Washington also has cause to maintain open communication with China about potential political challenges in the North. The best case would be a new reform-minded government, something which all should hope for but no one should expect.