If subsequent polling shows Paffrath doing anything like this well, it creates all kind of issues for California pols of every persuasion. For Republicans, the idea of bringing down the hated Newsom only to lose the governorship to a purportedly Democratic influencer would represent a devastating lost opportunity. So there could be a natural tendency for Republicans to consolidate behind a single candidate. But which one? Elder appears to be the strongest, but Falconer, Cox, and former congressman Doug Ose are the more conventional candidates. The state GOP, moreover, just gave up its own consolidating powers by deciding not to endorse a replacement candidate in a virtual vote by state party convention delegates.
The dilemma for Democrats is more complicated. Party leaders would prefer that its voters slam-dunk the recall and then ignore the replacement contest. They remember what happened in 2003 when the replacement candidacy of Democratic lieutenant governor Cruz Bustamante was thought to have helped ensure Gray Davis’s recall without boosting Bustamante to the governorship (won by Arnold Schwarzenegger with a minority of the replacement vote). One way of looking at it is that Democrats and Team Newsom can ignore Paffrath and just treat him as a last-gasp safety valve if the worst happens in the vote to recall or retain Newsom. But there are some Democratic constituency groups and good-government types that might prefer a Republican to Paffrath, whose platform is an eclectic “centrist” combo platter with items that will be hard to digest, according to Staggs…
Join the conversation as a VIP Member