Likewise, an Economist/YouGov survey from late July/early August showed that Republicans who said they didn’t plan to get the vaccine wouldn’t be swayed even if they were told that Trump had gotten it and encouraged others to do the same. Just 3 percent of respondents who told the pollster they didn’t plan to get vaccinated said they would be persuaded to get the shot if Trump urged them to do so, including only 5 percent of Republicans. In a separate survey from June, The Economist/YouGov found that among adults who said they would not get the vaccine, a larger share said they trusted medical advice from Trump (53 percent) than from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (14 percent), Dr. Anthony Fauci (9 percent) and Biden (7 percent). Still, only 3 percent said that Trump’s endorsement would sway them to get the vaccine themselves.

What’s also working against Republicans’ new pro-vaccine push is that hesitancy and refusal rates have been stagnant so far, especially in red states. According to Morning Consult’s tracking, the share of Americans who said they were either unsure or unwilling to get vaccinated has decreased by only 3 points in two months, from 34 percent in May to 31 percent in July. That trend is particularly entrenched in states that heavily supported Trump. On average, in the 20 states that backed him by more than 10 points in the 2020 election, 25.2 percent of respondents said in the July survey that they were unwilling to get vaccinated (essentially unchanged from 25.9 percent in May). By contrast, in the 16 states that voted for Biden by more than 10 points, an average of only 15.0 percent of respondents in the July survey said they were unwilling to get vaccinated, similar to the 15.4 percent who said the same in May.