The BLM Effect caused an even more shocking drop in policing, paired with a stunning rise in murder. From last summer to this winter, police in Chicago made 53 percent fewer arrests compared with the same period in 2019. Murder in the city rose by 65 percent. In New York, police made 38 percent fewer arrests and murder rose by 58 percent. In Louisville, Ky., police made 35 percent fewer arrests and murder rose by 87 percent. In Minneapolis, Minn., police made 42 percent fewer arrests and murder rose by 64 percent.

The BLM Effect shares similarities with the Ferguson Effect, but is distinct in important ways, particularly in severity and extent of damage. Between 2014 and 2016, murder nationwide rose 23 percent. In 2020 alone, murder increased by more than 25 percent. In essence, the BLM Effect unleashed more death in a single year than two years of the Ferguson Effect.

Rioting and looting also surpassed Ferguson Effect numbers. From 2014 to 2016, political violence was largely isolated in a handful of cities and limited in duration. The Ferguson and Baltimore riots of 2014 and 2015, which were the most destructive of that period, generated less than $50 million in property damage combined. In 2020, hundreds of riots broke out nationwide, wounding over 2,000 officers, and inflicting nearly $2 billion worth of property damage. In Portland, Ore., rioters and anarchists took to the streets for more than 100 days in a row. The 2020 BLM riots were the most destructive in U.S. history.