Similarly, in 2010, Republican turnout was up, mostly because the older white voters always most likely to vote in midterm elections were beginning to tilt seriously Republican. Most notably, after narrowly losing the over-65 vote in the previous midterms in 2006, Republicans won it by a 59-38 margin in 2010. That was big, because 58.9 percent of eligible seniors turned out in 2010, as compared to 19.6 percent of eligible 18-24 year-olds and 32.2 percent of 25-44 year-olds.

The close correlation of older voters and GOP voters in 2010 has steadily faded since 2010; Republicans only won seniors by two percent in the last midterms in 2018, and by four percent in 2020. So the age skew isn’t likely to help them all that much in 2022. Traditionally, the party that does not control the White House gets an enthusiasm bump that helps explain presidential midterm House losses in all but a very few (1998 and 2002 being the exceptions) post-World-War II midterms. That could be the case in 2022, though the heavy involvement of Donald Trump that seems likely may help keep Democratic turnout nearer to the strong 2018 and 2020 levels than would otherwise be the case.

A wildcard is whether voter suppression measures being enacted by Republican legislatures will have a significant impact on 2022 turnout. It’s possible, though Democrats will use the malice involved in these laws to counter-mobilize the young and minority voters that are the GOP’s intended victims. Meanwhile, voting rules are actually being liberalized in most Democratic-controlled states.