But the main drivers of vaccine refusal in the military community are worrisome. A survey in December 2020 by the advocacy group Blue Star Families showed that 49 percent of service members did not plan to be vaccinated, and 54 percent of military spouses weren’t planning to. The reasons for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine mirrored those of the general public: 70 percent of people surveyed who declined to be vaccinated expressed distrust of vaccines’ development or timeline, or concerns about safety, and 58 percent preferred to wait and see if additional side effects arose. A full 28 percent reported in December 2020 that they didn’t believe the coronavirus was a threat to them or their families; 27 percent distrusted most or all vaccines.

Medical experts consider concerns about vaccine safety to be largely unfounded. As Marine Lieutenant Colonel Thomas B. Turner, responsible for vaccine efforts at Camp Lejeune, said, “We have to inoculate the force from the virus, and we have to inoculate the force for vaccine misinformation … The key to addressing this pandemic is building vaccine confidence.”

The Army is reportedly making some preparations for mandatory vaccinations in September if the FDA gives the vaccines full approval. In the meantime, the Pentagon’s reluctance to take a stronger stand for vaccination may itself be undermining confidence. Not long ago, I had a casual conversation about the issue with a soldier at Fort Hood in Texas. I didn’t take down his name at the time, but in hindsight his explanation of why many weren’t getting a shot was revelatory: “Because if it was really important,” he said, reflecting the time-honored cynicism of the rank and file, “the military would make us do it.”