In the most likely scenario, Lessler says, the U.S. reaches only 70% vaccination among eligible Americans, and the delta variant is 60% more transmissible.

In that scenario, at the peak in mid-October, there would be around 60,000 cases and around 850 deaths each day, Lessler says.

Each scenario also includes a range of how bad things could get — the very worst end of the range for the most likely scenario shows about 240,0000 people getting infected and 4,000 people dying each day at the October peak, which would be almost as bad as last winter.