To head off a lackluster expansion, something will have to change. The large ongoing infrastructure investments proposed by the Biden administration would do the job. They should provide decent stimulus for job and income gains as well as higher productivity for the long term—just what the U.S. economy needs.
This solution does come with a caveat. A recovery buoyed by large public investments also will depend on convincing financial markets that Washington will cover the new, ongoing costs. Otherwise, interest rates will increase—rising sharply if higher inflation persists—and so weaken the expansion. But corporations and their shareholders can carry the burden of those costs without undermining consumer spending and growth in any meaningful way. Investors can also afford it: On June 25, 2020, the S&P 500 closed at 3,083.76; precisely one year later, it closed at 4,280.70. Investors have gained 39 percent over the past 12 months—more than 10 times the rate of increase in median wages and salaries.
Support for healthy growth also could come from people simply deciding to save less and spend down some of the personal savings they have amassed since March 2020. During World War II, Americans saved an average of 22.5 percent of their disposable income; once the war ended, the rate fell, to 11.8 percent in 1946 and 6.3 percent in 1947. It could happen again if Millennials, Generation Xers, and the Boomers still in the workforce behave as their grandparents and great-grandparents did 75 years ago.
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