Democrats lost ground with non-college voters of color in 2020

In digging through the 2020 voter data provided by the Democratic data firm Catalist, Third Way's Aliza Astrow found that even as Biden was able to slightly improve on Clinton's showing with white, non-college voters, "Democrats endured a sharp drop-off in support" from non-college voters of color. In 2016, according to the data from Catalist, Clinton took 81 percent of the vote from non-college voters of color. In 2020, Biden took 75 percent among this group, a 6-point drop.

While it's hard to characterize a 75 percent showing as 'weak,' Democrats' heavy reliance on voters of color means the party can't afford to see more slippage among this demographic group in upcoming elections. Democrats' long-term viability in Sun Belt states like Arizona, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina require more than just winning over white suburbanites and not losing any more ground with white, non-college voters. They have to continue to run up the score with voters of color.

As with white voters, there is a decent gender gap among voters of color, both among non-college and college-educated voters. But, the drop in support among women (both college and non-college-educated) for Democrats between 2016 and 2020 was significant.