It’s not as though there’s a high bar for the GOP. Republicans will need to flip about half a dozen seats in the House, when in the post–World War II era the president’s party has lost on average 27 seats in midterms. On top of this, the playing field is tilting the GOP’s way. Reapportionment gave more seats to Republican states, and based on its strength in state legislatures, the GOP also has the upper hand in redistricting. The Biden theory is that $6 trillion in spending will deliver a roaring economy that diminishes any midterm losses. But the latest jobs and inflation numbers show that it might not be so simple, and there is considerable doubt whether Biden can get his spending. Greenberg derives some comfort from his belief that, in contrast to 2020, “this time, Democrats cannot fail to see how early Trump’s party is fully engaged with its ongoing culture war, focused on crime, open borders, and defunding the police.”