A glimpse of the future: How the collapse in fertility is showing up in the labor market

If we have so many people not working, how are they surviving economically? The Emsi researchers make an interesting and novel claim that much of this non-work is being funded by boomer parents. Boomers drove the massive postwar expansion of the U.S. economy generating fat portfolios that their children will inherit and, in the meantime tend to cushion living conditions for their children, a historically high number of which are delaying marriage and home-buying. By 2030, millennial kids will inherit an eye-popping $68 trillion of their boomer parents’ wealth. The prospect of this transfer, the Emsi report argues, has reduced the urgency for education and career and helps promote the part-time work phenomenon. In other words, part of what’s creating a labor shortage is a proliferation of small-time trust-fund babies who are both living with mom and dad and waiting for the reading of the will. This brings us to the truly grim part of the Emsi analysis. Money in stocks and bonds, retirement accounts—and in programs like Social Security and Medicare—is useful only if there are goods and services available to spend it on. Without the dynamism and productive capacity of a vibrant and growing workforce, we may be facing a future in which living standards decline because less stuff of all kinds is being invented and produced. (For those who remember their basic economics, too much money chasing too few goods is a recipe for—anyone? anyone?—yes, inflation.) Moreover, the Emsi report argues, there are precious few options for staving off this future for our descendants. A smaller population means fewer brains to find technological bridges for the labor gap. Fertility rates are falling across the world, making it harder to meet labor needs with immigration. (Note to immigration critics: You or your children may live long enough to wish for a far more open border.)
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