How many unvaccinated people will stop wearing masks now?

An Economist/YouGov poll released last week showed that 63 percent of Americans who said they didn’t plan to get vaccinated said they felt at least “somewhat” safe socializing indoors with other unvaccinated people without a mask. That compared with just 36 percent of people who had received at least one dose. In others words, the people who were much more protected were still more reluctant. (It seems likely the latter number will rise in the coming weeks, based on the new CDC guidance). It also suggests nearly two-thirds of those who won’t get vaccinated are rather prepared to venture out into society and interact with other people who might or might not be vaccinated. The mask mandates provided a measure of social and even legal pressure for them to mask up while engaging in those activities. But with many or most of those mandates now being repealed and it being impossible to know who’s vaccinated, they’re now seemingly freed up to do something they already believed was safe. It’s theoretically possible some or even many of them will abide by the guidance and still wear a mask. An Axios/Ipsos poll last week showed around half of unvaccinated people say they wear a mask at all times when leaving their home. That’s a pretty good analog for those who take the guidance more seriously, given that went beyond the guidance at the time. But that group includes people who are unvaccinated but don’t necessarily say they won’t get vaccinated at some point — i.e. it’s a broader group than the longer-term potential spreaders of the virus.
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