Even if this new party attracted only 3 to 5 percent of the total vote in the 2022 midterms, that small difference could be enough to make a difference. Ralph Nader’s quixotic Green Party campaign for president in 2000 only got 2.7 percent of the vote, yet his vote total exceeded George W. Bush’s winning margin in New Hampshire and Florida. Had Nader not been on the ballot, Vice President Al Gore likely would have won. A breakaway Constitutional Conservative Party, to give the venture a name, could similarly determine which party controls the House and Senate.
That might perversely work to the GOP’s advantage. Democrats attracted the lion’s share of voters who fit this group’s issue stance and demographics. Indeed, five of the eight people mentioned as potential signatories on this letter publicly announced they would vote for Biden last year, and surely others followed George W. Bush’s example of writing in a candidate or voting for Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen. Such voters also backed Democrats in the key Arizona and Georgia Senate races and many House races. These people would surely be more comfortable in this new party than in a Democratic Party that increasingly moves leftward on economics and culture. A new party that stands for the 2004-era Bush Republican principles may draw more voters from Democratic ranks than from Republicans.
This prospect should not, however, deter Republican leaders from trying to get these people back on board.
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