The Trump effect can be seen starkly in Ohio Republican politics. One would think Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, who was a featured speaker last year at an event of the populist policy shop American Compass on how to forge a working-class conservatism would have more populist credibility than Senate primary candidate Josh Mandel, who has a long record as a run-of-the-mill establishment Republican. But Gonzalez voted to impeach Trump, and so he’s getting censured by his own state party and Mandel is earning populist points by calling him a “traitor.” On the other hand, another likely Senate candidate, J.D. Vance, who represents a populism that is sincere and thought-through, will have to answer for his lack of enthusiasm for Trump in 2016. If Trump does decide to run again, it might be that he’s less dominant as advertised, but regardless, he’ll certainly squeeze out potential candidates like Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, who are most determined to run as direct successors to Trump.