The doom-loop of a falling fertility rate

And so we're left with the possibility that there may be no way to break out of our demographic decline — at least in the short-to-medium term. Unless another possibility presents itself, that is. As I noted above, a declining population and rising median age will tend to drive down economic productivity and growth and could eventually make Americans poorer, in the aggregate, over time. But as I've also pointed out, increasing wealth tends to contribute to declining birthrates. What if declining wealth removes that disincentive toward procreation, producing a self-correcting uptick in the birth rate once again? What if, in other words, a poorer America of the future turns out to be a more fertile America, just as the the poorer America of the past tended to have much higher birth rates than we see today? Since economic downturns tend to be correlated with declining birthrates, such a shift might never materialize. (It may be that demographic and economic growth, as well as demographic and economic decline, are each mutually reinforcing.) That wouldn't mean we're destined for a continuous downward slide. But it might mean that there is little or nothing that any person, party, or government can intentionally do to slow or reverse the trend.
Advertisement

Join the conversation as a VIP Member

Trending on HotAir Videos

Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement