We have plenty of reasons to worry about the continuing pandemic: the variants, runaway viral spread in India and Brazil, differences in vaccination rates that mirror racial and political divides. But cautionary public-health guidance risks losing its impact if it fails to acknowledge what the American public surely can see: We are winning the war against COVID-19 in the United States, and we can adapt better than the virus can. The tools with which Americans have become familiar in the past year—testing, masks, targeted business closures, the selective protection of the most vulnerable groups, public-education campaigns to promote the new vaccines—can be deployed as needed. When conditions improve, government guidelines that have kept schools closed, discouraged travel, and imposed far-reaching mask requirements need to be updated. The CDC took a step in this direction this week, lifting a recommendation that masks be worn outdoors at all times.
Homeland-security policy offers some useful lessons for how daily life might further evolve in the coming months. Instead of imposing requirements that restrict everyone’s activities equally, governments and private entities may rely on drawing sharper distinctions between “unburdened” and “burdened” classes. TSA PreCheck is a perfect example: If people take a few affirmative steps—providing the government with some background information and submitting to a security screening—they avoid certain hassles at airport checkpoints. People are free to refuse, but they’ll have to wait in line and be ready to take off their belt and shoes.
In a similar spirit, the European Union will open travel to U.S. citizens, but only those who have been vaccinated; some major sports teams are reserving spaces for vaccinated fans only; many colleges and universities are requiring vaccinations for admission; major employers are likely going to do the same. People who refuse shots will be subject to sanction from private enterprises that, unlike certain elected officials, feel no obligation to indulge vaccine deniers. Vaccine hesitancy might not be evenly distributed across the country; the resumption of normal activities in places with high vaccination rates and continuing COVID-19 outbreaks in areas with low ones could change minds over time.
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