We can’t know exactly what each state will do. But, after accounting for the newly announced reapportionment, Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman estimates Republicans will net three or four seats from redistricting (while offering a range of zero to eight.) Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende similarly estimates a net gain of four from a “normal redistricting,” in which Republicans do not pursue extreme gerrymanders. A four-seat net gain from reapportionment and redistricting would help Republicans take the House in 2022 but they need to net five seats. (That number could change depending on how the parties fare in upcoming special elections to fill House vacancies. Democrats have two outside chances this year to flip Republican-held seats, in Texas’s sixth district and Ohio’s fifteenth district. Republicans are not expected to win the specials for three Democratic-held vacant seats.) If Wasserman’s upper bound estimates prove correct, Republicans could gerrymander their way to a House takeover, but such a victory could prove pyrrhic. In the previous decade, after Republicans took the House in the “Tea Party” wave of 2010, they sought to hold on to their House majority with, as dubbed by Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, the “Great Gerrymander of 2012.” After that 2012 House election, Democrats were irate because they won a 48.8% plurality of the House vote while Republicans snatched 53.8% of the House seats.