Why California's 2021 recall isn't the same as the 2003 version

1. California is much more Democratic: The state has trended evermore blue since 2003. Every statewide elected official is now a Democrat, along with more than two-thirds of the Legislature and the vast majority of the congressional delegation. That has supplied a deep pool of endorsements for Newsom as the party unifies behind him. Democrats also account for 46 percent of the registered electorate versus just 24 percent for Republicans — a difference of nearly five million voters. That gap has widened significantly since Schwarzenegger was on the last recall ballot: back then, Democrats had a much smaller advantage of about 8 points, or about 1.3 million voters. All of that buoys Newsom. 2. Poll position: Recent polling shows clear majorities of voters approve of Newsom’s performance and don’t want to oust him — a position he owes to solid support among independents and the overwhelming backing of his own party. Newsom was elected in 2018 in a resounding victory over Republican businessperson John Cox — the largest landslide for a non-incumbent since 1930, and one that saw Newsom win even formerly conservative strongholds like Orange County.