Trump could gain from Biden's decision to delay withdrawing from Afghanistan

The Taliban stopped attacking American forces under the terms of the Trump deal, resulting in more than a year without any U.S. deaths. But the insurgent group has signaled it will begin attacking coalition troops again if they stay past May 1. So the choice is likely between leaving Afghanistan peacefully next month or again putting American forces under fire — making a withdrawal much harder to accomplish. And even if those U.S. troops fare OK, Biden will also be placing pressure on himself to deliver a better deal than the one for which he’s derided Trump. Concerns about the consequences of the Trump arrangement focus on the possibility of a fall of the Kabul government and a Taliban takeover that would be disastrous for women’s rights. But neither of these concerns are likely to be alleviated over the next four months. In that case, Biden might feel obliged to remain longer still in search of something he can point to as an improvement over Trump’s deal that justifies a pullout. Also consider that in May, Biden would have the excuse of sticking to a prearranged withdrawal plan; the next deadline is one that he himself has set. That means he has less ability to blame anyone else if things go wrong even as he has less leverage over the enemy. If attempts at diplomacy come up empty, leaving on that note might be seen as an administration failure in the way that sticking to the Trump plan would not have been.