Should the result be tight but in Newsom's favor, his position might look more vulnerable down the line. But a convincing victory could see him bolstered ahead of the 2022 gubernatorial election. "If he ends up winning by a fairly substantial margin, it may not leave much of a mark—and could even take some out of the wind of 2022 challengers," Schickler said. Henry Brady, professor of political science and public policy at University of California, Berkeley, told Newsweek he thinks the recall is a problem for Newsom, and could harm potential aspirations for national office, but could potentially have benefits down the line. Brady said he thinks defeat for Newsom in the recall is unlikely, adding: "There is even a chance that this vote may go so heavily in Newsom's favor that it will provide him with support and momentum."