He knows what’s going to happen if we leave. The same exact thing that happened immediately after the Soviet Union spent 30 years equipping and later directly training Afghanistan’s national military. The national institutions — which were largely fictive and stood up as an accomplishment for the foreigners — were overwhelmed by the real established institutions, clans, and warlords, who promptly split the loot. The jihadis, the ones who had been funded by Americans, came storming in afterward.
And that’s what will happen after May 1, if we leave. The only difference is that this time the religious fanatics won’t be funded by America. Instead they’ll be funded by Pakistan, America’s oldest and least-reliable friend in the region, which is also a major recipient of American foreign aid.
Everyone knows what will happen in Afghanistan. We’ll leave and the Taliban will devour the national government, or we’ll stay and wait to see if they start shooting at us again, as we continue winning hearts and minds and minting stars for generals there.
What we don’t know is what is happening in Afghanistan.
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