One shot is better than none

Now let’s talk about applying science. Real-world evidence suggests that the effectiveness of one shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine ranges between 72% to 92.6% after two weeks. Further evidence suggests the second shot could be given 12 weeks later instead of three or four weeks and be equally effective. After every senior citizen and high-risk individual gets their two shots, applied science would suggest we could save tens of thousands of lives if we give one shot to as many people as possible and came back for a second dose as more vaccines are available. This is assuming that robust real-world evidence finds a second shot even necessary, which it’s possible won’t be borne out by the evidence.

Consider this: If you had 200 Pfizer vaccines and 200 family members, and it was up to you, how would you allocate them? The current emergency-use authorization tells you to give 100 people two shots. Assuming it will be 95% effective, only 100 people would be vaccinated, and 95 would be protected. Alternatively, you could give 200 people one shot, assuming 75% effectiveness, 150 people at a minimum would be protected. This approach has the potential to address the relative limitations in supply and the hiccups we are seeing ramping up in mass vaccination sites right now. Each day that applied science is delayed, more people than otherwise will die from Covid-19, and the opening of businesses and schools will be unnecessarily delayed.