No-Brainer Contest Type 1. The first type of no-brainer contest is a district without a Democratic challenger to the Republican candidate. Without a Democratic candidate, there is no risk that the centrist candidate will siphon votes away from a non-Trumpist Democrat and inadvertently elect a Trumpist. In 2020, Democrats did not field a candidate in eight House districts: AL-05, AL-06, AR-01, FL-02, FL-25, MS-04, SD-At large, and VA-09. Each of these could be targeted.
No-Brainer Contest Type 2. The second type of no-brainer contest involves races with only one Democrat and one Trumpist Republican in states with specific electoral systems: top-two primary systems (California and Washington for state- and federal-level elections, Nebraska for state-level elections) or majority-runoff systems (Georgia and Louisiana). Both these kinds of electoral systems provide opportunities for third-party candidates to give it a go with lower risk of benefiting a Trumpist. In such electoral systems, the centrist candidate either wins enough votes at the first election to make it into the runoff election or fails to win enough votes at the first election, in which case the contest reverts to the Democrat-Republican contest that would have happened without the centrist entry.
In both these types of no-brainer contests, if the resources and candidates can be found, it makes sense to roll the dice.
The two types of maybe contests, on the other hand, require more strategic consideration.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member