The big picture: Sources tell Axios Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would be more likely than not to vote to convict Trump — a green light for other Republican senators to follow.

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy would love a Trumpless world, but doesn’t want to knife him with fingerprints. This school of thought wants to let Trump do himself in, without a big party fight over his sins and sentence.

The fade-away caucus sees a danger that the impeachment-conviction route is, as a prominent conservative put it, “making him Jesus. … Truly stupid.”

But an effort by McCarthy to push a lighter punishment for Trump censure has crumbled.