For instance, with an influx of new arrivals from other states, Texas could gain three new districts, based on an analysis from Dave Wasserman, chief House race handicapper for the Cook Political Report. Many of those new residents are Democrats and have made once deep-red Texas more competitive. But the GOP holds the governor’s mansion and gained seats in the Legislature last month, positioning the party to gerrymander the new seats to elect Republicans.

In other words, redistricting in Texas could produce half of the seats Republicans need to win the majority. But GOP insiders are cautious when discussing the matter and wary of becoming overly reliant on the process. The redrawing of congressional boundaries is complicated and arcane. Incumbent politicians have been known to cut deals with the other side that prioritizes their political survival over opportunities to increase their party’s representation in Congress.

“Since Republicans came within a handful of seats of the majority after the 2020 elections, the majority should be within reach,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan political prognosticator. “But redistricting makes handicapping the House a little complicated because there will be new lines around the country.”