The Trump team believes it is investing shrewdly in door-to-door canvassing and phone calls, in contrast to Democrats who are spending on TV to the exclusion of traditional GOTV operations.
In general, Trump needs to juice his rural turnout while dampening his urban and suburban loses. But there’s such a big divide in the country that both might be swinging in different directions — people on the ground in Wisconsin, for instance, apparently think Trump’s rural numbers are going to be higher than in 2016, while he’s even further behind in the suburbs.
In 2016, there was a lot of alarm about suburban Republicans being disaffected by Trump, but they came home at the end. The Trump team is hoping the same happens again and is trying to regain support among independent seniors, another trouble spot. (On the other hand, indications are that he’s picked up among black and Hispanic males.)