Trump’s campaign has an answer to that, as articulated in a call with reporters Monday. Sure, their support with older voters is weaker than it was in 2016, but that would be “offset by gains in certain voting populations,” such as Black and Hispanic voters.

If we compare our most recent poll to 2016 exit polls compiled by Edison Media Research, you can see the problem with that strategy. Among non-White voters, Hillary Clinton held a 74 percent to 21 percent advantage in 2016. That group made up 29 percent of all voters, according to Edison, meaning that Clinton got 21.5 percent of all votes cast from non-White voters (74 percent of 29 percent) and Trump got 6.1 percent. That’s a 15-point advantage for Clinton.

In our new poll, former vice president Joe Biden does about as well as Clinton did four years ago. If we assume the same turnout from non-White voters, Biden doesn’t actually see a decline in support relative to Clinton. Applying the same math to older voters, we see that Biden gains 1 percent of the electorate relative to Clinton.