3. Ground game advantage: Trump (Bigly).
The voter registration numbers in Florida fly hard in the face of those poll numbers. Four years ago there were 330,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. Now that gap is 183,000. In Pennsylvania, the Democrats’ edge in registered voters has fallen off by just under 200,000, the majority of which has come this year. In North Carolina, Republican voter registration is up 3.5 percent, while Democrats have fallen off by more than 6 percent since the 2016 election.
It fails even the most basic test of logic to think that these swing-state voters are switching from Democrat to Republican just so they can cross the aisle again and elect Biden president.
Especially when the Trump campaign, undaunted by COVID-19, has engaged in a door-knocking campaign the likes of which few campaigns have ever put forth. The campaign’s standard is a million knocks a week, a staggering number, and they hit the 100 million mark early last month. The Biden campaign? Just went in the field. They’re scared of COVID. They’ve said so.
Oh, and those mail-in ballots you’re so afraid of? Not to say you have nothing to worry about, because mail-in balloting is clearly corruption of the process. But so far, in swing states like Ohio, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the numbers on those mail-in ballots have things more or less at 50-50 by party registration. Nationally, Democrats have a sizable advantage, but who cares if they blow things out in Washington and California?