It also is why even in polls that show Biden winning comfortably, the same voters when asked who they think will win still pick Trump. While the media cover every utterance by a NeverTrump Republican, they don’t report the surge in Democrats, unaffiliated voters, and people who didn’t vote in 2016 at Trump rallies. For example, at the Duluth, Minnesota, rally, 60 percent of attendees weren’t Republicans and 17 percent didn’t vote in 2016. We have to assume people who don’t like Trump aren’t wasting their evenings at Trump rallies. If Trump’s campaign can get those people to vote, then winning is possible.

Most importantly, winning the enthusiasm battle matters because it impacts the ground game enormously. Enthusiastic supporters become enthusiastic volunteers who spend long hours every day knocking on doors to identify and get supporters to vote. On that front, Biden has not had a ground game in months, opting instead to shut down all face-to-face voter contact. The Trump campaign, however, has pushed as aggressively as possible to reach as many voters as they could, as they’ve always seen this election as a turnout election.