Why Biden would likely have a Democratic Senate if he wins

Not surprisingly, Biden is doing much better in the five states where the Democrats look best positioned to pick up Senate seats than he is in Alabama. In fact, he is ahead in all five of those states, save maybe Iowa where different polling averages disagree on who the leader is.

Either way, Biden’s position is weakest in Iowa where the Democratic Senate candidate (Theresa Greenfield) has the smallest lead of the five current seats Democrats look best positioned to pick up.

All told, with maybe the exception of Iowa, every single state where Biden is leading also has the Democratic Senate candidate ahead. Likewise, every single state where Trump is ahead also has the Republican candidate for Senate leading.

There are potential exceptions to this rule. Biden is clearly behind in places such as Kansas, Montana and South Carolina. The Democratic Senate candidates, though, could win in any of them. Right now, however, they’re slightly behind.

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