Trump is winning by about 21 points among Whites without a college degree in an average of those polls. That may seem like a lot, but remember that Trump led among this group by about 30 points in the final pre-election polls in 2016.
Keep in mind, we’re making an apples-to-apples comparison here. Even if the polls are off by a similar margin as they were in 2016, this exercise takes that into account. There’s real movement going on here among Whites without a college degree.
This 9-point or so shift is even more impressive, when you keep in mind that there’s been a change of less than 4 points overall toward Biden compared to where Hillary Clinton was at the end of 2016…
These voters make up the majority of voters in key Rust Belt (Great Lake) battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All of these were states Trump won by less than a point in 2016.