Yet, there are signs that this state has become more competitive in recent weeks. According to data provided to the Cook Political Report by the ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics, the Trump campaign outspent Biden on the Nevada airwaves in June and July $2.4M to $225,000. By August, however, the Biden campaign was on TV in a big way — spending $2M. They have booked another $2.2M for September and $1.6M for October. The Trump campaign was dark in August but has pre-booked $1.5M for September and another $3.7M for October. President Trump is planning to hold rallies in Nevada this weekend.

There are plenty of reasons for why the Biden campaign should be nervous about their hold on this state. First, Nevada — with its tourism-based economy — was hit extraordinarily hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the end of August, the state’s unemployment rate was almost twice as high as the national average. Many folks are more worried about how they are going to be able to keep a roof over their head or food on the table. The upcoming election is probably not high on their priority list.

The pandemic also meant that traditional ground game activities — like voter registration drives in and around the casinos, churches and other gathering places — can no longer be employed.