Poll: Biden 51, Trump 42

Biden is currently supported by 51% of registered voters and Trump by 42%. The remaining vote is scattered across third-party candidates, including Libertarian Jo Jorgensen (2%), the Green Party’s Howie Hawkins (2%), and other candidates (1%), while 3% of voters are undecided. This is similar to the Democrat’s pre-convention lead of 51% to 41% last month. The poll also includes Monmouth’s first national likely voter model of the cycle, which has Biden ahead by 7 points at 51% to 44%. Jorgensen and Hawkins each earn 1% support from likely voters and another 2% are undecided.

Biden continues to have more firm support – 43% of all registered voters and 45% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for him – than Trump does. Certain support for the incumbent comes from 37% of registered voters and 41% of likely voters. About half of the electorate (50% registered and 49% likely) continues to say they are not at all likely to support the incumbent, while about 4 in 10 (40% registered and 42% likely) say the same for the challenger.

The poll also finds that 7 in 10 registered voters say Biden respects our military troops and veterans a great deal (48%) or some (23%). Just over half say the same about Trump (41% great deal and 14% some). At the other end of the spectrum, 30% of voters say Trump has no respect at all for military personnel and just 12% say the same about Biden. Among voters who are not firmly committed to either major party candidate – including undecided and third party voters – 70% say Biden has at least some respect for our troops versus 8% who say he has none at all. Among this same group of voters, 54% say Trump has at least some respect for the troops versus 22% who say he has none at all.