The GOP hope has been that this would change with Mr. Trump again on the ballot, and that millions of “shy” Trump supporters who refuse to talk to pollsters will vote like a new silent majority. Perhaps, but there is little evidence of this so far. Mr. Trump has narrowed his deficit somewhat since the GOP convention, but he trails Mr. Biden in the polling averages in every battleground state. It seems unlikely Mr. Trump can win the nationwide popular vote, so he will have to eke out another victory in the Electoral College.
After the surprises of 2016, only a fool would say this can’t be done. But if Mr. Trump is going to do it, he will have to make the election about more than himself, or even his first-term record. He has to make the election a choice about two futures, rather than two men.
This is not a novel insight. Mr. Trump’s strategists can see the polling and have reached the same conclusion. They staged the GOP convention to soften Mr. Trump’s polarizing image and especially to draw lines on policies. Taxes and the economy, education choice, China and foreign policy, urban unrest, opportunity for the least skilled and those without college degrees.
The campaign’s ads are doing the same, and they will have to because the media won’t report on the policy differences. The press also wants the race to be about Mr. Trump, who obliges on almost a daily basis.
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