The election is Joe Biden’s to lose as he continues to hold a lead over President Donald Trump coming out of the Democratic and Republican conventions, which mark the start of the fall campaign.

But the future is unknowable. Data has its limits. Surprises happen. The world can change quickly, as anyone who lived through the 2016 election or the first eight months of 2020 knows.

The country remains deeply polarized along a roughly 50-50 partisan split. Biden and Trump allies both agree the outcome will likely be closer than the polls currently suggest as voters increasingly feel the tug of partisan magnets.

Here’s what we know and, importantly, what we don’t know two months before Nov. 3.