Trump’s challenge is to find ways to excite his base without driving voters who already find him offensive into Biden’s camp — and that is likely to be very difficult to do.
Biden’s challenge is to continue to broaden his coalition so that it negates the new voters Trump is able to excavate from the depths of his aggrieved base. Every decision the Biden campaign makes needs to be understood through that prism. If Trump’s rage and rants against establishment elites prompt more of his voters to come to the polls this year, Biden will need a strong result from what I call the “Metropolitan majority”: voters in cities and suburbs. And while Democrats may be able to pull some additional support out of constituencies that generally support our candidates, Biden will need to win additional suburban and college-educated female votes, as well.
None of that is to argue that Democrats should ignore Trump’s provocations. But it does suggest that we focus on issues that will expand our appeal to the women (and some men) who have grown to dislike Trump, but are susceptible to believing that a Biden presidency might point the country to a political extreme.