Young voters prefer Biden, but they may not vote

But even as younger voters prefer Biden to Trump, it’s not clear at all that they actually like Biden. Consider polls from ABC News/Washington Post, CNN, Fox News and Marist.

Biden’s net favorability (favorable – unfavorable) rating averages out to be -4 percentage points among the 18-29 year-old subset. That’s actually about 5 points worse than his net favorability with all registered voters in those polls. If we expand out to 18-34 year-olds looking at data from CNN, Gallup and Monmouth, Biden’s net favorability remains negative.

Indeed, the difference between vote choice and net favorability among young voters is striking. Biden’s running about 30 points better against Trump in the horserace than his net favorability alone would suggest. Again, if we add more data from July, the point stands.

Compare what’s going on with young voters to 65 years old and older. They give Biden a net favorability rating of +10 points in an average of ABC News/Washington Post, CNN, Fox News and Monmouth polls. The same polls have Biden ahead of Trump by 9 points with this group. That is, there’s no statistical difference.