The indictment itself offers clues indicating that the SDNY’s evidence is strong. The case appears to be built largely on documents; the SDNY, it seems, has the receipts. The indictment mentions that the evidence includes “fake invoices and sham ‘vendor’ arrangements,” plus documents showing how the defendants created and used empty shell corporations to try to hide the flow of money from “We the People Build the Wall” into their own pockets.

From Bannon’s perspective, it’s one thing to defend a case that turns on subtle issues of subjective intent, or that rest on testimony from other co-conspirators. But it’s much harder to defend a case based on black-and-white financial documents. A good defense lawyer can cross-examine a witness and try to take apart his story — but it’s much harder to argue with phony invoices and forged receipts.

The outlook for Bannon is bleak. He can go to trial, of course, but the vast majority of federal trials result in conviction. He can plead guilty and hope for a slightly lower sentence than if he is convicted by a jury. Largely because of the amount of the alleged] fraud — here, prosecutors say, over $25 million — Bannon, if convicted, is looking at a sentence of at least approximately seven to nine years under the federal sentencing guidelines (which are important but not binding on a judge), or slightly less if he accepts responsibility and pleads guilty.

Or Bannon can try to cooperate with the SDNY — which could offer him his best chance at a significant sentencing reduction.