She says her models keep predicting declines after the infection reached between 10% and 35% of the population. That doesn’t mean the virus has gone away — only that by her models, it won’t explode in those same places again. Gu’s models, too, predict no big second waves in New York City or Stockholm, but leave open the possibility of new outbreaks in relatively unaffected areas, just as Hawaii is now fighting outbreaks and New Zealand has imposed a new, short lockdown.

She says she didn’t expect to come up against resistance to her models in the scientific community. While she’s starting to get some attention in the media, she said journal editors told her that her modeling ideas, in preprint, posed the danger of making people feel entitled to relax their vigilance. Maybe the opposite is true, she suggests. Maybe censoring all but the most pessimistic views could discourage action by making the problem seem endless.

The controversy mirrors one that took place a few years ago when renowned cancer researcher Bert Vogelstein dared to suggest that the very nature of cancer had a random element and therefore some people who did everything right would get cancer through bad luck. He was pilloried for the view, not because it was untrue, but because it was deemed a dangerous invitation for people to be bad.